EURUSD is consolidating. Overview for 06.04.2023

EURUSD on Thursday is stable. The current quote is 1.0890.

The data published yesterday demonstrated that the ADP private employment index in the US in March had grown by 145 thousand while an increase by 200 thousand had been expected. The bad impression was smoothed out by the revision of the previous report: it changed for 261 thousand from 242 thousand previously.

This week, a lot of attention will be paid to the employment sector. For now, the statistics looks as if American employers are bringing down their activity after a year of active employment and staff expansion. Simultaneously, growth of wages might start slowing down after three months of being neutral.

On the whole, millions of jobs could be cut in the US this year due to the Fed continuing its campaign of lifting the interest rate. The consequences will definitely be reflected in the economic system, but they might be expressed unevenly.

The Fed has succeeded in beating inflation to a certain extent because the figures have been declining for eight months in a row. The Core PCE index that also serves as a landmark for the Fed in making interest rate decisions has started declining as well. However, the employment market turned out stronger than expected from the start and it goes on competing over labour force by increasing wages. But now its potential looks rather limited.

This said, the US employment sector reports scheduled for tomorrow must be especially important.