EUR has risen in value. Overview for 03.07.2023

The main currency pair looks stable on Monday. The current quote in EURUSD is 1.0910.

According to previously released data, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (Core PCE) price index in the US rose 0.3% m/m in June against a forecast increase of 0.2% and a previous rise of 0.4%. On a year-on-year basis, the increase is 4.5%.

The indicator has thus shown the weakest rate of growth since July last year. This is excellent news. The Federal Reserve tracks this particular index when compiling inflation statistics.

The Fed is watching the part of the consumer basket where there are notable movements. In particular, the findings apply to the service sector - tight prices here are thought to support inflation growth if the labor market remains as robust. The sector where the Fed is not seeing much price progress is non-real estate services.

This week's focus of market attention will be the publication of the minutes of the previous Fed meeting. This was the meeting two weeks ago where the regulator decided to take a pause in its series of rate hikes. Investors will be interested in the terms of this decision as well as indications of the Central Bank's future moves. The main market view now is on a 25 basis points rate hike at the July meeting.