The Aussie just can’t rise. Overview for 04.11.2021
AUDUSD just can’t find any reasons for recovering after plunging earlier this week.
The Australian Dollar is falling against the USD on Thursday. the current quote for the instrument is 0.7423.
The Retail Sales in Australia added 1.3% m/m in September, matching the expectations. Consumers remain quite active even despite some COVID-related restrictions.
The country’s export dropped 6% m/m in September after losing 4% m/m in the previous month. The import showed -2% m/m after bein-1% m/m over the same period. The import decline as the internal demand indicator doesn’t look optimistic so far but it may improve closer to Christmas and next summer.
According to the Fitch Ratings expectations, the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the interest rate in 2023, although the regulator itself was talking about 2024. During its latest meeting, the regulator said that the rate wouldn’t be revised until inflation got back in the range of 2-3%. There is a more optimistic scenario, which implies a rate hike may happen at the end of 2022 if inflation reaches stability and salary growth exceeds expectations.
The forecast from ANZ is also quite optimistic – it implies a rate hike in the mid-2023 and the closure of the QE programme in six months.
The Aussie is pretty calm when it comes to the rate discussions.
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