The Pound is retreating a little bit. Overview for 11.02.2019

At the beginning of another February week, GBPUSD is trading downwards and waiting for the statistics.

Over the last several trading session, the British Pound hasn’t been fluctuating too much in its movements against the USD, probably in anticipation of news. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2935.

On Monday afternoon, the United Kingdom is scheduled to report on the Industrial Production, which is expected to add 0.1% m/m in December after losing 0.4% m/m in November. Another indicator, the Manufacturing Production is expected to expand by 0.2% m/m in December after -0.3% m/m the month before.

The fact that the Industrial Production may recover is very important and positive for the British currency, because it means that the country’s enterprises and factories are ready for new orders. The more solid the reading, the better for the Pound. However, the Pound is very unlikely to rise on Monday, because the GDP report is not expected to bring anything good. 

The GDP report over the fourth quarter 2018 will be published later in the afternoon. The indicator is expected to add 1.4% y/y, which is worse than the previous reading of +1/5% y/y. On QoQ, the improvement might be only 0.2% against the third quarter reading of +0.6%. So, where does this expected decline come from? Most likely, it’s relating to the Brexit concerns and risks, both clear and unclear, multiplied by political issues and absence of trading agreements with the European Union. In addition to that, at the end of 2018 there were problems with the Retail Sales, which might also influence the GDP.

In other words, after consolidating at the end of last week, the Pound might as well plummet again.